- As the earnings season kicks off, investors are bracing for massive profits from S&P companies.
- Amid high expectations, any worse-than-expected earnings surprise could stoke market volatility.
- Bespoke has shared some of the most volatile stocks that usually move +/- 10% on earnings days.
- See more stories on Insider’s business page.
A high-stakes earnings season is officially here.
Wall Street analysts are expecting S&P 500 companies to report an earnings growth rate of 64% during the second quarter, which would be the highest year-over-year rate reported by the blue-chip index since 2009, according to FactSet data.
Earnings per share forecasts also increased from 48% at the start of the year to 62% on Monday, according to Credit Suisse Chief US Equity Strategist Jonathan Golub, who expects to see “outsized results” during this quarter.
Golub said in a Monday note that cyclicals and financials sectors, which have experienced the greatest earnings revisions over the past six months, are expected to realize the greatest year-over-year growth of 578% and 102%, respectively. (A further estimate of key sectors’ earnings growth is shown in the chart below.)
“Results have topped estimates by 20% over the past 4 quarters. Although a small sample set, 2Q early reporters are beating by 16%,” he said. “Historically, every 1% revenue surprise is accompanied by a 4% margin surprise.”
As investors brace for what could be the highest earnings growth in a decade, a lot is at stake too.
Inflationary pressures, supply chain bottlenecks, and labor shortages have weighed on big corporations and small businesses alike. Whether these issues are temporary or long-lasting, any indications of their negative impact on the productivity of corporate America could derail the strong
and economic reopening.
“… the upcoming US corporate earnings season will be among the most important of the post-pandemic period,” Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, founders of DataTrek Research said in a Monday note. “Markets have been discounting a profit recovery since March 2020. But … The magnitude of that recovery is still uncertain. All we know for sure is that there’s a lot baked into stock prices. A lot.”
This quarter’s results and company guidance could determine the direction of stocks in the months ahead. However, any earnings surprise could stoke further volatility in what is already supposed to be a volatile period for stocks.
Bespoke Investment Group has compiled some of the most volatile stocks on earnings. These 10 stocks, despite being well-established names with at least 10 years of earnings history, have historically experienced an average one-day move of at least +/-10% on their earnings reaction days, according to the investment research firm.
The stocks, along with their tickers, estimated reporting days, and average one-day moves, are listed below.
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