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Morningstar lays out 5 automakers best-positioned to thrive as electric vehicles grow to 30% of global auto sales by 2030

  • Electric vehicles are projected to grow to 30% of global auto sales by 2030, according to Morningstar.
  • Tesla is the most well-known EV leader and just achieved its first $1 billion quarter of net income in its 18-year history.
  • 100% of car industry sales eventually being derived from an EV mix is a distinct possibility, Morningstar’s analysts said.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Electric vehicles have sped quickly from being on the fringe of car purchases to gaining a more meaningful market share. In a recent research note, Morningstar projected they would make up 30% of global auto sales by 2030, up from just 3% in 2020.

There are a few exceptional leaders in the race, including market leader Tesla, which has been bolstering its profitability in recent quarters. In the company’s most recent report, it recorded more than $1 billion of net revenue for the first time.

The competition is becoming even more fierce as established players aggressively pursue a greater share of the EV market in the years ahead. In 2025, German luxury vehicle manufacturer BMW said it plans to have 25 electrified models, of which 12 will be EVs and 13 will be plug-in hybrids.

By 2030, BMW targets at least 50% of its global sales volume to be EVs. General Motors has already promised to only sell zero-emission vehicles globally by 2035. Finally, Volkswagen said it projects battery EVs to be 20% of total volume by 2025, growing to 55-60% by the early 2030s.

EVs will also become cheaper at the entry level and reach performance parity with internal combustion engines in the years to come, Morningstar noted.

“With charging infrastructure being built throughout China, Europe, and the United States, the second half of this decade will see rapid EV adoption,” the research firm said.

The firm’s analysts say eventually 100% of industry sales could be EV-related, offering plentiful investing opportunities in the industry’s winners. 

The research team has also categorized stocks based on their ability to fend off competition and out-earn their capital costs for years to come, known as a moat. The wider the moat, the greater a firm’s competitive advantage. Yet not all of the stocks that are listed have a moat rating due to their inability to gain a sustainable advantage, according to Morningstar. 

Detailed below are the firm’s top five picks for EV makers that it believes are best placed to capitalize from the expected boom in consumer demand. 

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