Health

Florida professor predicts the state will reach its peak in next week

Florida professor predicts the state – which has been recording 20,000 Covid cases per day – will reach its peak in next week and will hit herd immunity by September 11

  • Dr Edwin Michael, of the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health, has been conducting models of the recent surge of COVID-19 cases
  • He predicts that Florida will see its peak of infection on August 24 and record a high of 23,000
  • Michael says that shortly after the peak, it will mean that 90% of Floridians have immunity either from being previously infected or from being vaccinated
  • The model suggests that Florida will reach herd immunity by September 11 and that COVID-19 will only appear in small spikes around the state


A Florida professor predicts that the state will see its peak of COVID-19 cases next week and that herd immunity will soon follow.

Dr Edwin Michael of the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health said he has been running computer models of the recent surge that has seen 20,000 cases per day in the Sunshine State.

Michael told WPBF that the simulations suggest Florida will report a record-high of 23,000 infections on August 24.

This will result in the majority of the state having protection against the virus – either natural immunity or through vaccination – which lead to herd immunity being achieved by mid-September. 

Dr Edwin Michael (pictured), of the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health, has been conducting models of the recent surge of COVID-19 cases

He predicts that Florida will see its peak of infections on August 24 and record a high of 23,000 cases

He predicts that Florida will see its peak of infections on August 24 and record a high of 23,000 cases

‘The peak will occur August 24 – a week from now,’ Michael told WBPF.

‘So we are very close to the peak of the current wave.’  

According to Michael, reaching that peak will mean that 90 percent of Floridians have immunity either from being previously infected or from being vaccinated.

Public health officials have warned for years that vaccines not only protect individuals but also the community as a whole in what is known as ‘herd immunity.’

This occurs when the vast majority of a community becomes immune so that, if a disease is introduced, it is unable to spread.

Therefore, those who are unable to be vaccinated, including the ill, very young and very old, are protected.

Experts like Dr Anthony Fauci have estimated that at least 85 percent of a population needs to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity.

The 90 percent mark well crosses that threshold. 

‘September 11 or something like that, we’ll get herd immunity,’ Michael told WPBF.

According to Michael’s models from two weeks ago, the peak was supposed to be much worse, reaching 31,000 cases per day before declining.  

Michael says that shortly after the peak, it will mean that 90% of Floridians have immunity either from being previously infected or from being vaccinated, and the state achieve herd immunity by September 11 (left)

Michael says that shortly after the peak, it will mean that 90% of Floridians have immunity either from being previously infected or from being vaccinated, and the state achieve herd immunity by September 11 (left)

Florida professor predicts the state will reach its peak in next week

‘Now its come down drastically to 23,000 [new cases], and that’s because vaccinations have picked up, more people are getting immune – thank God – and another thing we are noting, more people are now observing social mitigation measures on their own,’ he explained.  

Health experts have previously suggested the spike in infections could be pushing more people to get shots. 

Across the state, Florida is recording a seven-day rolling average of 760,000 doses administered per day, the highest seen since late June, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Michael told WPBF that once the virus almost runs out of people to infect, there will be only small spikes here and there before it ‘dies out.’

‘We are predicting by early next year this will just go away,’ he said.

Florida professor predicts the state will reach its peak in next week

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