The ‘Hidden’ Death Cross & ‘True’ Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 & 50 , which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion.
In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross,
For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage.
5 Hidden Death Cross ( HDC );
1. 26-Sep-2011: -60%
2. 07-Jul-2014: -73%
3. 28-May-2018: -62%
4. 24-Feb-2020: -61%
5. 30-Aug-2021: -….
– 100% Probability of Market Contraction
– Average contraction: 64%
Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage.
4 True Golden Cross (TGC);
1. 16-Jul-2012: +16’890%
2. 20-Jul-2015: +7’192%
3. 29-Apr-2019: +179%
4. 03-Aug-2020: +531%
– 100% Probability of Market Expansion
Expansion too variable for significant deviation estimation
I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that the price action reflects the human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time.
Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour that have statistical probability.
As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021
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