BTC – Approaching Breakout or Further Downside? for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by 1BigPapi

For those worried about the market dropping more, below are the three critical support levels to keep an eye on, either one can serve as a bottom for price. Additionally keep an eye on the MACD .

Bearish Scenario (another wave down):

I’m watching the 12 chart, on the MACD if we see price reject a bullish cross (blue line crossing over the red line), that will likely be followed by another wave down. Since early November, price is in a 31 degree downtrend channel , now dropping to the bottom of the current value range and testing key support levels. From peak to peak this is now a 20% drop if we find support in the current range. Resistance today is around the low $57k, and a rejection here will likely revisit one or several of the support levels listed below:

  • 1st support is at the bottom of the value range ( ie . where most trading/positions are placed) between $54k and $56k
  • 2nd is to the 20/ 21w support levels between $50k and $53k, they are historical bull market supports we sometimes revisit; closing a daily or weekly under them signals growing bearish sentiment, possible bear market coming
  • 3rd is the May resistance turned support in October between $46.4k to $49.5k.

Bullish Scenario:
Price needs to break above the 31 degree downtrend resistance. And above are layers of resistance, but the level bulls need to regain in short term is the 12h 20 EMA that serves as short to mid range indicator of market sentiment. That is currently downtrend around $58.8k.

On-Chain Data:

  • Inflows rose to a level that previously triggered short term rising bearish sentiment
  • Supply on exchanges continues to reflect macro accumulation and the dip (so far) appears to be largely bought

    [*}Open Interest is still elevated but dropped back to early October levels, this could afford additional shakeout but its a step in the right direction if we want to see continued upside
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