– My view on how a market with few participants functions. It is easier to do this in an immature market with fewer seasoned participants rather than a complicated index. You can predict the lifecycle of the entire move from the very first candle of it’s genesis.
– Very often, a big move in a direction precedes a trend in the opposite direction.
– It seems that this entire move is a an automatic rally of the last distribution cycle completing, and we are at the end of a new, but lesser distribution cycle. When the distribution cycle ends, there is no more need for a market to sell into, and price will decline – likely below where the cycle started.
Newton’s Third Law:
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
In my previous idea, I was able to gauge the movement and the potential bounce at 40k:
Similarly, I was able to use this ‘Real TA’ to predict AMC’s rise to 70+ (and its first rise to 25+):
– When trading beyond intraday, it is useful to anticipate what large market participants and MM’s who really move the markets are thinking. No matter how advanced the algos get, at the end of the day there’s going to be parties that wants to buy or sell an asset. If you know what they want, then you know where the price is going, no matter how the price swings in between. You don’t need quantitative strategies for alpha if you understand market psychology.
– In trading, the destination is what is important. In order to be successful in trading, you need to escape the emotions of day-to-day price movements and the biases that the media sells you. You might get lucky by being in a market, but once the tides shift, it will be revealed who is swimming naked with no process. YOLO gains do not guarantee future performance.
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