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Aston Villa vs Manchester City Premier League prediction and odds

Check out our 7/5 Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction below

Not long ago this would have been a straightforward task for Manchester City but Steven Gerrard’s impact at Villa Park has been so emphatic, even in just two games, that the Premier League champions are going to need to be on their A-game if they are going to stop Gerrard completing a hat-trick of win as Villa boss.

City are red-hot 7/20 favourites with Grosvenor Sport but that feels short enough given the mood around Villa Park right now. The hosts are an incredibly tempting 15/2 to continue their resurgence under the new manager.

In that five-game spell that ultimately cost Dean Smith his job, Villa averaged an xGA of 1.9 goals per game. It’s a small sample size but Gerrard’s has already cut that down to 0.65 xGA in his two games in charge.

It is tangible progress in making Villa harder to beat, a characteristic that is going to stand them in good stead on Wednesday night, especially as City haven’t exactly been free prolific in front of goal on the road (ten away goals is the lowest total among the sides in the top four).

Of course, Manchester City are a different kettle of fish entirely to Brighton and Crystal Palace but the mood around Villa Park is chalk and cheese to what it was before the international break.

The Premier League champions haven’t looked back since they were stunned by Crystal Palace at the Etihad last month and they never really looked in trouble in Sunday’s 2-1 victory over fourth-placed West Ham, something that is emphasised by the Hammers xGF of just 0.2.

That 0.2 number carries significance because West Ham are the fourth-strongest attacking team in the division based on xGF, so it highlights just incredibly difficult it is to create big chances against Pep Guardiola’s side.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction

This is going to be a much tougher test of Aston Villa’s progress under Gerrard, at both ends of the pitch.

Not conceding has to be the priority given how difficult it will be to make an impact at the other end of the pitch, but if they can build on what they did at Palace at the weekend, it is far from a formality that City win this game.

The goals market looks a good opportunity to back a winner here because this has the feel of a game in which defences could come out on top. Punters tend not to like backing the ‘unders’ but the 7/5 about fewer than three goals makes some appeal so that’s the bet for us.

Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals – 7/5

Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins is closed down by Luka Milivojevic and Michael Olise of Crystal Palace

Aston Villa vs Manchester City odds

Aston Villa 15/2

Draw 22/5

Manchester City 7/20

*odds subject to change

Get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet £10 on Aston Villa vs Manchester City with Grosvenor Sport

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Aston Villa vs Manchester City Head to Head

21 Apr, 2021: Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City (Premier League)

20 Jan, 2021: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)

1 Mar, 2020: Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City (Carling Cup)

12 Jan, 2020: Aston Villa 1-6 Manchester City (Premier League)

26 Oct, 2019: Manchester City 3-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)

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